Use a thesis to test your reasoning
Make the assumptions behind a decision visible and reviewable.
A useful thesis records what you believe, what supports it, and what would change your mind.
Read the bear case first
Compare the strongest opposing evidence with your original reasoning. If the answer is uncertain, record the missing information rather than treating a confident tone as proof.
Separate evidence from interpretation
Research pages collect findings and sources. Bull, base, and bear cases interpret them. Valuation adds assumptions about the future. Each layer deserves a different question:
- Evidence: is the source relevant, dated, and credible?
- Interpretation: does the conclusion follow from the evidence?
- Valuation: which inputs drive the range?
Keep a record you can revisit
For long-term holdings, compare updated evidence with the original case. For committee discussions, retain the version reviewed and the unresolved questions. For advisory work, explain the assumptions and limitations alongside any exported analysis.
Tracking helps surface changes. It does not decide whether you should buy, hold, or sell.